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Decline and Fall: The Geopolitics of Climate Breakdown

8000 years ago the Sahara region was far greener and wetter, supporting a sizeable population of hunter gatherers and large animals. Over time the region became more arid and prospects dimmed for the people that roamed an increasingly dry interior. These nomads moved to the coast in search of more fertile land and in particular … Continue reading “Decline and Fall: The Geopolitics of Climate Breakdown”

After the Storm: Long term risks in the aftermath of Covid-19

In July Intelligent Risk, a publication of the Professional Risk Managers’ International Association (PRMIA) published my article on long term risk to the world economy following Covid-19. In March 2020, millions of office workers around the globe packed up their desks and almost overnight became remote workers. They left behind daily train journeys, coffees with colleagues and crowded … Continue reading “After the Storm: Long term risks in the aftermath of Covid-19”

How to Manage Geopolitical Risk

Introduction In this guide I outline the major global and geopolitical risks faced by international organisations and how they can be successfully managed. One of the world’s leading insurance firms Willis Tower Watson labelled geopolitical risk the number one risk corporate risk faced by multi-national companies. From war to climate change to failures of national … Continue reading “How to Manage Geopolitical Risk”

The Fight for Blue Gold: Water and Geopolitical Risk

In June 2020 the Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sameh Shoukry warned the UN that Egypt faced an existential threat. That threat and regional geopolitical risk is the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The construction of the dam threatens to dramatically cut the flow of the Nile to Egypt. Less water reaching Egypt will could ruin the … Continue reading “The Fight for Blue Gold: Water and Geopolitical Risk”

Monitoring Risk from Space: An introduction to Spatial Finance

The global municipal bond market is a worth an amazing US$ 3.8 trillion a year. As one might imagine the owners of these bonds are highly motivated in wanting to protecting their investments. Growing awareness of climate and geopolitical risks in the form of rising sea levels, floods and wildfires and their impact on the … Continue reading “Monitoring Risk from Space: An introduction to Spatial Finance”

The Keys to the World: Geopolitical Risk and Maritime Chokepoints

Across the globe there are maritime chokepoints which hold valuable strategic value but also significant geopolitical risk. Below I look at both the history and geopolitics of the Suez Canal, Panama Canal, the Straits of Malacca and Hormuz and the Bosphorus Straits. Historically these places have been important thanks the huge amount of shipping that … Continue reading “The Keys to the World: Geopolitical Risk and Maritime Chokepoints”

Melting Ice, Freezing Politics: Arctic Geopolitics

Icelandic President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson made it clear: “The security of Shanghai in the future will be determined in the Arctic.” Shanghai is the world’s major city most vulnerable to flooding in a warmer planet. As more Arctic ice melts sea levels will rise, which in turn will sink China’s financial capital. Melting Ice, Freezing … Continue reading “Melting Ice, Freezing Politics: Arctic Geopolitics”


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