The Fight for Blue Gold: Water and Geopolitical Risk

In June 2020 the Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sameh Shoukry warned the UN that Egypt faced an existential threat. That threat and regional geopolitical risk is the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The construction of the dam threatens to dramatically cut the flow of the Nile to Egypt.

Less water reaching Egypt will could ruin the livelihoods of its farmers and people. Cairo claims that the dam will inflict permanent damage to Egyptian society, but for Ethiopia it promises power to provide light and power for one of Africa’s most populous countries.

Egypt urged the UN Security Council to adopt a resolution that would give international backing to reach a compromise agreement. Ethiopia has rejected the resolution and announced the filling of the dam would begin in the next two weeks.

Egypt has hinted that a military solution could be used if an agreement is not reached. The gravity of the situation has been recognised by the USA, which is attempting to broker a deal between the two countries.

Resource Conflict and Geopolitical Risk

The dispute highlights how conflicts over resources can morph into geopolitical risks. Water wars have long been predicted by analysts. Conflict over water and other resources is as old as civilisation itself. Now the world’s freshwater supplies are under huge strain as rising populations and economic growth drink up ever more water.

Climate change will compound this problem. Rising temperatures will melt glaciers reducing the flow of water from many mountains, drying lakes and allowing sea water to salinate rivers. Control over water by itself may not cause conflict but may act as a catalyst. India and Pakistan are already have a frosty relationship. Disputes over water could put relations between the two into a deep freeze.

Melting Glaciers

Disappearing glaciers in the Himalayas will soon reduce the flow of mighty rivers like the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra making the Indian sub-continent one of the most exposed to drought.

Control over the remaining water in the Indus will make the battle around Kashmir where the river emerges more acute. Pakistan and India have been gone to war over the divided province three times and tensions remain high between the two nations.

Pakistan is highly dependent on the flow of the Indus for its agriculture and freshwater supplies. Any attempt by India to exert control over the water will face major resistance from its nuclear armed neighbour.

India recently completed the Kishanganga dam. This has led to an on-going dispute with Pakistan around the Indus River Treaty which has been handed to the World Bank to settle.

The Cradle of Civilisation

The Tigris-Euphrates river is called the cradle of civilisation as it is where the Sumerians and Akkians built some of the earliest recorded cities. Since then the river has been the lifeblood of many countries, cities and empires.

In more recent years the Turkish have built dams which control the flow of water to Iraq and Syria. If Turkey continues to take more water or drought reduces the river’s flow it could cut water flow to Iraqi and Syrian farmers and cities. If crops start failing and cities experience water shortages, Turkey could be the scapegoat.

Somalia and Syria

Internal conflict is another source for potential water wars. As the climate changes and regions used to plentiful rainfall find themselves dry and arid. Farmers and pastoralists are forced off the land it can lead to famine and social breakdown.

People forced to move into new areas often sparks new conflicts. Climate change is at least partly behind conflict in Syria. A long lasting drought in the country forced thousands into cities and new regions. This new poverty stricken population helped to spark protests against the government, which in turn transformed (combined with other factors) into a devastating civil war.

In Somalia a long lasting drought in many regions has hampered the recovery the country and pushed many into food insecurity. Economic uncertainty is a fertile breeding ground for the terrorists, pirates and militants that have plagued the country.

Even developed regions will not be immune to water conflict. Last year Cape Town came close to running out of water after years of low rainfall and rising demand for water for agriculture and domestic use.

Where are the Solutions?

As fresh water faces multiple threats, pollution, climate change and overuse, are there any solutions to a growing crisis? Firstly: humans can be pushed to use less water through efficiency measures and improved infrastructure such as fixing leaky pipes.

Secondly: desalination is currently an expensive option for the energy rich. But there is hope that new techniques can make it a viable and economical option in the future.

Thirdly: its hoped that scarcity will force humans to be more careful with water and treat as a valuable commodity. However, billions of people already experience water scarcity in the present day.

So in the future it is likely that the middle classes will continue to ensure good access to water. While those on the margins will continue to suffer from climate change driven water shortages.